The hottest styrene market surged to a 10-year hig

In July, the styrene market surged to a 10-year high

entering July, the styrene price soared, breaking through the nearly 10-month fluctuation range of 12000 ~ 13500 yuan (ton price, the same below). On July 23, the average market price was 13750 yuan, which not only rose one step in less than a month to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of key materials by more than 7%, but also hit a five-year high since the global financial crisis in 2008. In the context of the severe domestic economic situation, the poor performance of the chemical industry as a whole and the weakness of pure benzene raw materials, styrene can have such eye-catching performance, which is inseparable from the recent fundamental changes of supply reduction and then demand increase. Industry insiders said that there is still room for styrene to rise in the future, and it is expected to break through the peak of 15000 yuan set 10 years ago

according to the analysis of insiders, from the supply side, the rise of styrene is mainly caused by the deterioration of the tight supply of imported styrene shipments. According to statistics, the global styrene production capacity was about 34million tons/year at the end of 2012. The production capacity in the mainland of China is slightly higher than 6million tons/year, and the output is less than 5million tons/year. However, the domestic demand is more than 8million tons/year for seamless steel pipes greater than 4.8mm, and the self-sufficiency rate is less than 60%. Since 2009, the annual import volume has exceeded 3million tons, with a high degree of external dependence. Therefore, the domestic styrene market price is often determined by the port import price, which is subject to many factors, such as tariffs, shipping schedule, etc

from July 3 to 10, the styrene cargo arriving at East China port was only 5620 tons, 16630 tons less than the previous week. If the supply decreases, the price will naturally increase. According to the customs data, China imported 1.742 million tons of styrene in the first half of 2013, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year. If the import volume decreased significantly in July, it laid the groundwork for the further rise in the future price of styrene

the tight supply of imported styrene cargo in China is mainly caused by the frequent accidents of foreign enterprises in terms of equipment recently. The restart time of 470000 T/a styrene unit of Hunan (Honam) Petrochemical Co., Ltd. in South Korea was postponed; The 420000 T/a styrene unit in Auckland, Japan will be shut down for maintenance for 40 days from September 4, and the 270000 T/a styrene monomer unit of DENKA in Chiba will also be shut down on July 20 for some reasons. South Korea and Japan are China's two major styrene importers. According to the customs data in the first half of 2013, China's styrene imports from South Korea accounted for more than 30% of the total imports, ranking first. Styrene imported from Japan also accounted for more than 10% of the total imports, ranking third. The centralized maintenance, accidental shutdown or delayed restart of this round of devices in South Korea and Japan have a great impact on the domestic styrene supply. It is expected that the styrene market will maintain a rising trend in the short term

from the perspective of demand, nearly 60% of styrene in China is used to produce polystyrene (PS), especially expandable polystyrene (EPS). In December, 2012, the Ministry of public security decided to cancel the implementation of Document No. 65, clearing the obstacles for the application of EPS in the field of building external thermal insulation materials. On February 26 this year, the national development and Reform Commission issued Order No. 21, lifting the ban on disposable foaming tableware, which has been banned for 14 years, from May this year. These policy changes have greatly benefited the application of EPS in the field of vacuum device packaging. Recently, the market price of EPS has also hit a five-year high with styrene

due to strong demand, many enterprises will build or expand polystyrene production lines in 2013, such as the 160000 T/a production line of Wuxi Xingda group phase II, the 120000 T/a production line of Shandong Yuyang new energy Co., Ltd. phase II, the 120000 T/a production line of Shandong Dongying Hairong NEW Material Co., Ltd. phase II, and the 120000 T/a production line of Jiangsu Jiasheng industrial group phase I, which are expected to be put into production this year

as the second largest consumption field of styrene, ABS will also put into production several sets of units in 2013, such as CNOOC LG Petrochemical Company 300000 tons/year, Shanghai Huayi Group 162000 tons/year and Zhenjiang Qimei 150000 tons/year. The release of these production capacity will drive the demand for styrene to increase, thereby driving up prices

in addition, due to the poor trend of most bulk products in the chemical industry this year and the heavy losses of dealers, many funds have been invested in the styrene market, which virtually pushed up the market price. At present, the international oil price is in the rising channel, and the chemical industry as a whole has stabilized and rebounded. There is no reason to be bearish on the rising styrene, and there is a great possibility of further rise