The hottest styrene deduces the crazy rising marke

2022-08-13
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Styrene shows a crazy rise

styrene has become a star in the recent market. After hitting the low point of 9100 yuan (ton price, the same below) in early June, the market price of styrene in East China surged all the way; At the end of August, it exceeded 11000 yuan, and then the growth rate began to accelerate; On September 17, the price of styrene in East China soared by 600 yuan a day to 13000 yuan; After a short adjustment, the price climbed again to 13400 yuan on September 26, reaching the highest point since June 2008, and then corrected to a high level for consolidation; The quotation on October 8 was 12800 yuan, little changed from that before the holiday

the crazy rise in styrene prices this year is quite different from last year. Last year, the lowest point of the domestic market was 9900 yuan in early November, and the highest point was 12000 yuan in early August. The annual fluctuation range was only 2100 yuan

according to chemical statistics, as of September 26, the price of styrene in the month rose as high as 18.1%, ranking first among aromatic products, and the increase of upstream pure benzene in the same period was 11.5%. The price of ethylene, another raw material (CFR Northeast Asia), even fell by 1.8%. The price rise of styrene is significantly higher than that of upstream raw materials. So why is styrene so crazy

the main reason is that the supply side is suitable for large-scale production. Since August, Tianjin Petrochemical, Qingdao Petrochemical and Dalian Fujia Dahua and other aromatics units have shut down, resulting in tight supply of domestic pure benzene market and forced interruption of styrene production

the 400000 T/a pure benzene unit of Tianjin Petrochemical was closed on August 15 for a 45 day overhaul, which directly led to the closure of the 500000 T/a styrene unit in Dagu, Tianjin. Jiangsu Shuangliang Richter chemical company reduced the operating rate of its styrene plant from 80% - 90% to 50%. In addition, Huajin Chemical has closed 225000 tons of styrene plant in Panjin since August 1, although the National Convention and Exhibition Center has provided more exhibition area/year for 45 day maintenance

on the other hand, the reduction of ocean arbitrage goods has exacerbated the tension of styrene supply in Asia. Styrol is scheduled to be overhauled in the 455000 T/a styrene project in Sania, Canada, and will be shut down until the end of October. The 485000 T/a styrene plant of the company in Texas is still shut down, and the company has not announced when the plant will be restarted. The overhaul of these two sets of large units has strained the supply of styrene for export in the North American market. In Europe, in mid September, the market price of styrene was US $1750 ~ 1820 (FOB Rotterdam), about US $200 higher than the CFR China price in the same period. This led to a reversal in the direction of arbitrage, and some traders transported styrene from Asia to Europe, making the supply of styrene in the Asian market more tight

due to tight supply, domestic styrene inventory showed a downward trend. At the beginning of the year, the styrene inventory in East China port was about 100000 tons, and then continued to rise, reaching 140000 ~ 150000 tons in February. However, after June, the port inventory fell for 10 consecutive weeks. As of September 26, the inventory has fallen below 40000 tons, only about 1/4 of the peak in February

it is worth noting that the high price of styrene has suppressed demand. Although the third quarter is the peak production of China's export products, the domestic demand for styrene resin will usually increase. But this year, in the case of sluggish external demand, the soaring price of styrene further inhibited the downstream operating rate

in terms of styrene resin, manufacturers were forced to reduce the operating rate of the unit. Taiwan Jianlong group closed its 450000 ton/year EPS plant in Jiangyin on September 17 for shutdown and overhaul. Xingdaji group, another major EPS manufacturer, has also reduced the overall operating rate of its devices from full load to 70% in recent years. In terms of polystyrene, Yanshan Petrochemical and Wuxi Weida plant shut down; The operating rate of 140000 T/a unit of Sinopec Hong Kong decreased from 90% in early August to 60% - 65% in September; Fujian Fangxing, Zhanjiang xinzhongmei and other units also maintained low load operation; Shantou aiskai's three production lines were all closed before the National Day holiday. One of them has resumed production on October 10, and the other two have resumed at an appropriate time. In terms of ABS, at present, the average operating rate of domestic devices is 55% - 65%, while the operating rate in previous peak seasons was generally 75% - 85%

due to the obvious lag in demand, traders are divided about whether the future market can continue to rise, and some merchants once began to carry out shipping arbitrage. On September 18, the price of styrene in East China market soon fell back from the high point of 13000 yuan to 12700 yuan. Although the price has gradually rebounded since then, it undoubtedly sounded an alarm to the styrene market with a heated atmosphere of speculation

however, there are still some positive factors in the short-term styrene market. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, the price of pure benzene is still strong, and the domestic market price has reached 10300 yuan. However, with the continuous decline of international crude oil prices, there is some uncertainty about whether the future market of pure benzene can remain strong. From the perspective of supply, Tianjin Dagu 500000 T/a styrene plant has been restarted, but priority will be given to the supply of contract goods and downstream ABS plants, with limited export sales; The operating rate of Shandong Yuhuang 200000 t/a styrene plant is maintained at 60%; Changzhou Xinri 250000 T/A and Ningbo Keyuan 100000 t/a units have been shut down for maintenance. Therefore, the market supply is still tight. It is expected that the price of styrene will still be supported after the National Day holiday, but the crazy market trend in the early stage should be difficult to reproduce

note: this reprint indicates the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its deployment of peak staggering production in the "2+26" cities in autumn and winter, such as cement, electrolytic aluminum, coke and other industries

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