PMI hit a 7-month low in the hottest month in June

2022-08-01
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In June, the PMI hit a new low in 7 months, indicating that the economy is stabilizing. In June, the PMI hit a new low in 7 months, indicating that the economy is stabilizing. Introduction: on July 1, the China Federation of logistics and purchasing and the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in June, China's manufacturing industry adopted computers with the function of manual sample registration, and the purchasing manager index (PMI) was 50.2%, Although the process is still to integrate high concentration ceramic material particles into the fiber evenly, which is above the 50.0% watershed of prosperity and decline, it has dropped by 0.2% compared with the previous month, hitting a seven month low

on July 1, the China Federation of logistics and purchasing and the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in June was 50.2%. Although it was still above the 50.0% watershed, it fell 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, a seven month low

from the 11 sub indexes, compared with may, except that the finished product inventory index, raw material inventory index and supplier delivery time index increased, other indexes decreased to varying degrees. Among them, the new export order index, purchase volume index and purchase price index dropped significantly by about 3 percentage points

the production index in the manufacturing PMI index in June was 52.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from May; The new order index fell to below 50.0%, and there were still many deficiencies in foreign manufactured goods, which was 49.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from May. However, the new export order index, import index and purchase volume index all dropped significantly, all below the level of 50.0%, 47.5%, 46.5% and 46.9% respectively, and the decline rate reached 2.9%, 1.6% and 3.9% respectively

liuligang, chief economist of ANZ Greater China, pointed out that the output index fell by 0.9 percentage points compared with may, while the new order index fell by 0.6 percentage points. Compared with may, the decline was significantly reduced, indicating that the overall downward trend began to ease significantly. Although the decline of new export orders is obvious, China's export situation in the second half of the year is not overly pessimistic due to the obvious easing of the situation in Europe

"from the inventory index, the finished product inventory is basically the same as that of the previous month when the sensor is pulled P, but the raw material inventory has increased by 3.1 percentage points, indicating that enterprises are taking advantage of the recent price decline to start purchasing some raw materials. The purchase price has decreased for the third consecutive month, further falling to 41.2%, indicating that the inflationary pressure is still easing." Liuligang further pointed out

according to the official data report, the PMI index in June shows that there is still downward pressure on the current economic development. However, in combination with historical data, this month's decline has a certain seasonality. It often falls in June every year. This year's decline is the lowest in previous years, indicating that the foundation for economic stabilization is taking shape

"despite the difficulties facing China's economy, many internal and external positive factors have begun to accumulate, including the continued relaxation of monetary policy brought about by the easing of inflation pressure, the accelerating pace of fiscal policy, and the unexpected reversal of the situation in Europe, which will bring positive positive factors to China's economy." Liuligang pointed out, "from the market side, the market interest rate may decline due to the expected reduction of reserve requirement, which will also encourage more enterprises to issue bonds to reduce financing costs. This will also reduce the excessive dependence of enterprises on bank credit and make their financing structure more diversified."

zhangliqun, special analyst of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, believes: "In June, the PMI index continued to fall, but the range was significantly reduced, indicating that the future economic growth may decline and stabilize. Recently, policies to stabilize growth have been introduced one after another, the decline in investment growth has decreased, the actual growth rate of consumption has slightly increased, and the export growth has rebounded significantly, which also supports the expectation that the future economic growth will decline and stabilize. The new order index and purchase price index are still falling, indicating that there are still many factors that affect the production expectations of enterprises, and The recovery of industrial production is expected to take some time. "

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