Please find the Research Report of the hottest pul

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Please check the Research Report of pulp in Lu Jin Ji region

research background

pulp futures was officially listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on november27,2018. After listing, the daily trading volume continued to be at a high level, with more than 1million hands for many trading days. The hydraulic gripper trading was very active, causing widespread concern in the market. An organization organized the first phase of the working principle of the wire wrapping experimental machine on December 4 to conduct the second phase of the investigation after the investigation on December 6, in order to better understand the traders' and factories' views on the pulp futures market and their mentality in the face of the current futures price

research purpose

there are three main research purposes. The first is to understand the current opinions of paper mills and traders on current prices and their current mentality; The second is to understand the current production and operation of the paper mill; The third is to understand the views of traders and paper mills on the future futures price trend

research objects

the research objects are traders and paper mills

the research time and route

the time is from December 11 to 13, 2018, and the research route is Jinan Dezhou Baoding Tianjin

research summary

paper enterprises. The research paper enterprises are mainly focused on the production of household paper. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of the enterprises are in a low position. The production reference order quantity of paper products is determined by sales. The sharp drop in pulp price has reduced the willingness of paper enterprises to fulfill the long-term association. Some paper enterprises choose to skip orders, buy pulp as you use it, and keep the pulp inventory low. Some paper mills believe that there is still room for the late exploration of pulp price, and the pulp price may remain weak in the first half of 2019. At present, some paper mills will not participate in pulp futures. The main reasons are as follows:

first, the brand of delivery pulp is uncertain. At present, class I, class II and class III pulp are mixed together. At the time of delivery, the customer's microcomputer-controlled impact tester cannot determine the type of pulp matched with the exchange, which is not conducive to the production of the enterprise itself

II. The location of delivery pulp is uncertain. Delivery warehouses are distributed in Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang. The transportation distance from different locations to the enterprise is different, resulting in uncertain transportation costs. In addition, the high freight superimposes the additional costs of delivery and warehousing. It is better to directly receive pulp in the spot market

traders do not understand the sharp drop in pulp price. The sharp drop in pulp price has brought great pressure to pulp traders, and some small traders have begun to default. Due to the downward pressure of the domestic economy, the weakness of exports and the existence of high inventories, the pulp price is expected to remain weak, but it is not expected to decline significantly

I. if the exchange rate factor is removed, the current price of needle pulp in Shandong is about 5600/ton, which is slightly different from the starting price of needle pulp in early 2017. The price increase in the past period has been basically wiped out

II. The US dollar quotation of outer disk coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp may not fall significantly. The users of large foreign pulp mills include not only Chinese users, but also users in other regions. To make up for the lack of Chinese production, when the prices of domestic coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp face great downward pressure, it can reduce the proportion sent to China and help alleviate the domestic inventory pressure. However, in the short term, the futures price of bleached needle pulp may still face downward pressure. China is currently facing major export problems, and the cost of paper mill shutdown is very low. When the export is blocked, the demand of domestic paper mills may decrease, putting pressure on the pulp price. The control ability of broad-leaved pulp is greater than that of coniferous pulp. The production capacity of broad-leaved pulp is relatively concentrated, mainly in the hands of Brazilian parrots and goldfish. The control ability is strong, or it may remain strong, and the quotation of Brazilian parrots is focused

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